‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Stock.

The ripple effects of a war being fought nearly 3,000km away are now reaching India's kitchens.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran impede energy transports through the Strait of Hormuz, supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, pushing restaurants to shorten food lists, close earlier and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is awash with video clips showing queues outside LPG distributors across Indian urban and rural areas as concerns over fuel supplies grow. Commercial LPG users appear the most affected: the most severe shortage is in commercial eateries.

"The situation is dire. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a official of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or piped gas, and the shortages are now being felt across the country. "Many restaurants have shut down - some in northern India, many in the southern region. People are turning to solid fuels and induction stoves to keep kitchens going."

Localized Effects

In a western metro, accounts say up to a fifth of hotels and restaurants are already fully or partly shut as business fuel stocks tighten. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their fuel reserves have depleted with minimal reserves. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and nothing else - it is nothing less than pathetic. Operations will be impacted," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are seeking alternatives. "Food options are being cut, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are varying as supplies ebb and flow. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers observe a spike in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Official Position

Yet, the government states there is adequate supply.

India has more than 30 crore domestic LPG users and spokespersons say supplies are being redirected to households as tensions from the war in the Gulf affect energy markets.

Roughly six out of ten of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about nine out of ten of those consignments pass through the key maritime route, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now significantly disrupted by the war.

The oil ministry says that it directed refineries to increase LPG output for home needs, enhancing domestic production by about a significant margin. Business-grade fuel is being reserved for critical services such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Unnecessary hoarding and accumulation has been sparked by rumors. The regular refill period for home fuel remains about under three days," says a senior official.

Widening Concern

Now the anxiety is extending beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of motorbikes outside a fuel station. "Anxiety is palpable," the description reads.

According to data from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be premature.

India imports 90% of its petroleum. Around half of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the gap could be partly compensated for by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a industry commentator.

Based on shipping data and credible market sources, additional Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, narrowing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The primary concern is cooking gas, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through Hormuz.

Refineries can modify output to extract a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only increase domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be somewhat alleviated through alternative sourcing. Processed petroleum stocks remains largely sufficient. LPG availability is the real variable to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the panic on the ground is not just tight supply but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of hoarding.

An industry representative claims opportunistic profiteering.

"Retailers are taking advantage of the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's oil supplies may be buffered by international market dynamics. But in homes across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next cylinder.