A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
