MAGA Supporters for Zohran Mamdani and a New Left Coalition: Key Unexpected Outcomes from NYC’s Mayoral Race

Only two days before the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange made a bold forecast – going beyond the winner citywide, but block by block. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, has spent over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of local celebrity this year for his thorough analyses into city data and polling.

He released his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win although failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in readership and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Patterns and Surprises

What was your election night?

I had to do that because they were adding approximately 200K votes into the tally frequently! I felt somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were large groups of ballots that came in after that and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, it was possible where election day turned out somewhat badly for him, where Cuomo would have essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. But Mamdani gained 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He assembled the coalition that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his base of liberal progressives, young leftists, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that the left long aimed for: multiracial, youthful, renters and residents struggling with costs

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump last year backed Zohran this year. But it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Both sides. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured we might exceed 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial opposition group, who were motivated, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to get over 50%. He has just over 50% but remain around 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not certain, but I think probable, and I wish he does because then no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost any district in any area. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump area. That truly surprised me. Cuomo kept very white areas, affluent zones and devout communities, and plus gained all of these conservatives on Staten Island who had a high participation. I think occurred significant tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it before Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome unless the winning alliance failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed “commie corridor” – was support for Mamdani dominant in those parts of the boroughs?

In my view there was some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. There, instance, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported Cuomo. Thus there existed some opposition. However overall, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote we reported on whether the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential in those places. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, there are newcomers from the former Soviet Union in the borough, they were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore it’s unclear if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from progressives hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that we’ll see more of that – people will come from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that every city in America can have similar progressive hubs. Cities are the centers of leftwing power in America – since youth reside there, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.