Polls Open in the Netherlands as Polls Point to Potential Repeat Win for Firebrand Leader Geert Wilders

The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though analysts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.